Fig. 4

Evacuation zone extents formed using BETVHst_AVF and BETEF_AVF with 0.1 to 0.9 transitional weighting at Node 4. Additionally, evacuation zones are presented by applying the AVF Contingency Plan using the 50th and 95th percentile vent uncertainty area for the Birkenhead scenario + 5 km evacuation zone buffer. All examples use the CBA threshold of p = 0.00826. The base probability grid is the spatial distribution of the absolute short-term average probability of volcanic hazard impact at a location from BETVHst_AVF.