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Fig. 8 | Journal of Applied Volcanology

Fig. 8

From: Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

Fig. 8

Aso BN Sub-net [c] model: Importance Sampling model for estimating the probability of an Aso-4-scale eruption in the next 100 years, implemented in UNINET (see text for an explanation of importance sampling). XS_eruptible_vol stands for excess eruptible volume, i.e., eruptible volume sample value is equal to or greater than the corresponding Aso-4 volume PDF sample; node < positive_vol_exceedances > counts the number of times this test is met. Node < Number_Samples > is a constant indicating the overall number of samples taken in the main BN and is the denominator rescaling for the count obtained with < Eruptible_ge_Aso4 > test

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Journal of Applied Volcanology

ISSN: 2191-5040

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