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Figure 7 | Journal of Applied Volcanology

Figure 7

From: Retrospective analysis of uncertain eruption precursors at La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe, 1975–77: volcanic hazard assessment using a Bayesian Belief Network approach

Figure 7

Comparison of the best-fit Dirichlet and Generalized Trapezoidal distributions with expert group quantiles. Comparison of the best-fit Dirichlet and Generalized Trapezoidal distributions for nodes 5 (recorded VT rate), 6 (Felt VT rate) and 15 (eruption), shown alongside the corresponding expert group quantiles. Plot shows conditional probability distributions obtained by fitting Dirichlet distributions (red) and Generalized Trapezoidal distributions (green) to the joint Decision Maker’s (DM) 5, 50 and 95th percentile estimates (black; the joint DM being the optimised combination of the individual expert’s estimates). The Dirichlet distribution gave the overall best-fit and was chosen for the final network.

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Journal of Applied Volcanology

ISSN: 2191-5040

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